Will 2025 be the year that makes or breaks the Toronto Blue Jays? That was the question heading into the latest Major League Baseball campaign, especially after the Blue Jays failed for the second year in a row to land a marquee free agent during the offseason. Pessimism was running wild; Toronto was staring at a win loss total of 79.5 on the MLB odds board at Bodog Sportsbook, with very long odds of +6500 to claim their first World Series since 1993.
Things look slightly rosier two weeks into the regular season. The Jays are off to a fairly competitive start at 7-5 as we go to press, boosting their World Series odds to +6000 in the process. And they’ve finally come to terms with Canada’s own Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on a lucrative long-term contract extension.
Will this be enough to lift Toronto out of the American League East doldrums and into title contention? Let’s take a closer look with Bodog’s early-season review, and see if we can take advantage of those Blue Jays odds going forward.
What Did We Learn From 2024?
That we can’t just rely on Guerrero and Bo Bichette to carry this team. Both players got off to slow starts last year; Guerrero eventually caught fire and finished the season with 30 home runs and a .940 OPS, earning his fourth straight All-Star nod and second Silver Slugger Award at first base, but Bichette (.598 OPS in 81 games) had easily his worst season after dealing with calf issues and a broken finger.
Things were much worse in the pitching department – especially the relievers, who finished last in the majors at a combined -2.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Closer Jordan Romano, the pride of Markham, Ontario, was limited to 13.2 innings pitched because of elbow injuries and ultimately non-tendered, signing with Philadelphia in the offseason. But the starters were mediocre as well, finishing No. 17 overall at +10.6 WAR. Something had to change.
Locking in Guerrero and Other Star Players
The Jays actually did a lot of their necessary re-tooling before last year’s trade deadline, shipping out seven players including SP Yusei Kikuchi (now with the LA Angels) and catcher Danny Jansen (now with Boston). That helped restock the farm system – but what about the big free agents that would help Toronto compete in 2025 and avoid a full rebuild?
Results were mixed at best. Just like last year’s near-miss with Shohei Ohtani, the Jays watched Juan Soto sign elsewhere this offseason, choosing the New York Mets over the Great White North. Instead, Toronto added the following players via trades and free agency:
– IF Andres Gimenez
– RP Jeff Hoffman
– UT Myles Straw
– RF Anthony Santander
– SP Max Scherzer
At this stage of their respective careers, none of these players is likely to have the impact that Soto would – not even Scherzer, the former three-time Cy Young Award winner who missed much of 2024 to assorted injuries. But the deal with Cleveland for Gimenez (.828 OPS in 12 games) did give Toronto a quality two-way second baseman at a very reasonable price, and Hoffman (1.69 ERA in 5.1 IP) has slotted in nicely as the new closer.
That Guerrero contract, though. On April 7, the Jays signed Vlady to a 14-year, US$500-million extension with no deferrals, making him technically more expensive than Ohtani at 10 years and $700 million for the LA Dodgers. Guerrero (slow out of the gate again at .665 OPS) also gets a no-trade clause, so it looks like Toronto has hitched their wagon to a 1B/DH with so-so defence, Gold Glove in 2022 notwithstanding.
Improvements Still to be Made
Anything can happen in baseball, but Toronto is still missing several pieces if they want to make a serious run at the World Series. They’ve been performing at somewhere around league-average in hitting, starting pitching and relief this year, as well as overall defence.
There is plenty of room for internal improvement. Santander (.502 OPS) has yet to find his stroke after making his first All-Star team last year with Baltimore. OF Daulton Varsho (.700 OPS and a Gold Glove in 2024) has yet to play while he recovers from offseason surgery on his right shoulder, although his return appears imminent. Same goes for RP Erik Swanson (2.97 ERA in 2023), one of the game’s best set-up men when healthy.
Meanwhile, once-promising Bench Mobbers 3B Ernie Clement (.408 OPS), OF Nathan Lukes (.527 OPS) and UT Davis Schneider (.188 OPS) are all struggling. Toronto has enjoyed surprisingly strong play from Straw (.813 OPS) in centre, and Alan Roden (.653 OPS) has shown flashes in left while Varsho gets healthy, but the Jays can’t expect that to continue – nor should they count on RF George Springer (1.254 OPS) to keep hitting like he’s the re-animated Ted Williams.
Is John Schneider the Right Manager?
Before the Guerrero signing, it was widely assumed Toronto’s entire front office was on the hot seat for 2025. Things appear to have cooled down somewhat for president Mark Shaprio and GM Ross Atkins; the fickle finger now points at John Schneider, who has managed the team since July 2022. Schneider’s contract is up at the end of the season, although the Jays do hold a team option for 2026.
He might not make it that far. Schneider is a lifetime Jay and a beloved figure after more than 20 years with the organization, but his bullpen management and overall decision-making have been subpar. Managers tend to be overvalued in baseball; a good one is only worth maybe 1-2 WAR, while a bad one will cost you about the same. Still, that could be the difference between Toronto making or missing the playoffs this year. Expect something on this front before too long, either to lift the Jays into the postseason, or in reaction to their failure once it’s too late.
Best Blue Jays Bets for 2025
It’s very early in the regular season, and we have yet to see the Blue Jays at full capacity, so maybe there’s enough potential here to grab Toronto as a value pick on Bodog’s MLB odds board. Taking a flier at +6000 on their World Series chances is entirely reasonable when you can earn a Wild Card with just 89 wins, like the Jays did in 2016 and again in 2023.
Chris Bassitt is also a viable AL Cy Young long shot at +10000 after posting a league-low 0.71 ERA in two impressive starts. And there’s renewed interest in Guerrero (+2000) as an AL MVP candidate now that he’s put pen to paper. Visit the MLB futures page at Bodog Sportsbook for the latest baseball odds on the Blue Jays, and keep checking in with us for more MLB betting tips and analysis as the season unfolds.