The regular season is over. The bracket is set. And if the last few weeks are any indication, this year’s playoffs are going to be chaos. Aaron Rose breaks it all down.
At the top, the Oklahoma City Thunder look like a juggernaut, riding the league’s best defense and an MVP-level season from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander into the No.1 seed. The defending champion Boston Celtics are back too and built to repeat. But beneath the favourites lies a field full of wildcards.
Can Kawhi Leonard stay healthy long enough to push the Clippers into title contention? Will LeBron James and Stephen Curry make another run with new star partners at their side? And what happens to Denver and Memphis, two teams trying to hold it together after firing their coaches?
Here’s where every contender stands as the race to the Finals begins.
The Favourite: Shai Has Arrived and the Thunder Are Ready to Win
The Thunder enter the postseason as the betting favorite at +185, and they’ve earned it. At 68-14, they posted the best point differential in NBA history and led the league in net rating. Most importantly, they have the NBA’s best defense by a wide margin. Their ability to switch, rotate, and contest across all five positions has turned scoring into a grind for opponents.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the heartbeat of the offense. He controls tempo, gets to the line at will, and thrives in clutch moments. Around him, Jalen Williams has taken a leap, Chet Holmgren protects the rim and spaces the floor, and the additions of Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein add grit and experience.
The one question: if someone can slow Gilgeous-Alexander, who hits the shot that saves their season?
This team has been dominant. Now we find out if they’re built to close.
The Repeat Bid: Boston’s Experience Keep Them Dangerous
The Celtics enter at +210 with the East’s second seed and the league’s second-best offense and fourth-best defense. They won 61 games without overextending anyone. When healthy, no team is more complete.
Jayson Tatum leads with force and versatility. Jaylen Brown remains a high-end two-way wing. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White anchor a backcourt that defends, moves the ball, and shoots. And when Kristaps Porzingis is on the floor, Boston can stretch five out or lock down the paint.
They take care of the ball, shoot threes at volume, and rarely foul. The concern is availability. Porzingis and Holiday both missed time late in the year, and the margin shrinks fast without them.
Still, this team knows how to win. And they know what’s at stake.
Teams in Chaos: Denver and Memphis Are Searching for Stability
The Nuggets and Grizzlies both enter the playoffs with talent, but neither looks stable. Both fired their head coach in the final weeks of the season. Now they’re trying to regroup in real time.
Denver dismissed Michael Malone and general manager Calvin Booth right before the regular season ended, despite 50 wins and home-court advantage in the first round. Nikola Jokić remains dominant, and the starting five is elite. But interim coach David Adelman inherits a thin bench and a locker room still adjusting to change. It’s hard to see them getting back to the top under these conditions.
Memphis parted with Taylor Jenkins in late March after a steep slide dropped them into the play-in mix. Ja Morant is back, but the system is still in flux. The roster has talent, but cohesion is missing.
Both teams are dangerous on paper. But April isn’t the time to hit reset.
Old Vets, New Life: LeBron and Curry Have Found New Partners
LeBron James and Stephen Curry are back in the playoffs, this time with new star partners beside them.
The Lakers made the biggest move of the year by trading for Luka Dončić. He brings youth, scoring, and control to a team that needed to find James more help. James no longer has to carry the offense every night. Dončić can take over late, create mismatches, and run the show when it matters most. With Austin Reaves ascending and Dorian Finney-Smith defending, the Lakers are suddenly dangerous.
The Warriors responded to early struggles by trading for Jimmy Butler. Since his arrival, the team has looked renewed. Butler gives them defense, edge, and a secondary closer to play off Curry. The ball is moving again. The defense is sharper. And Curry finally has another star who thrives when the game gets tight.
They aren’t top seeds, but they’ve got pedigree, firepower, and belief. And that’s enough to scare anyone.
The Darkhorse: The Clippers Go as Far as Kawhi Takes Them
The Clippers are one of the most complete teams in the bracket. They won 50 games, finished with the league’s second-best defense, and have the depth and experience to match up with anyone. But it all hinges on one question: is Kawhi Leonard healthy?
When Leonard is right, he’s still a force. His midrange game is surgical. His defense is elite. And his ability to control a game late is something few stars can match. But his knee has been unpredictable, and his availability could swing the entire West.
James Harden has had a renaissance season. He’s embraced a facilitator’s role and helped keep the offense flowing. Norman Powell has stepped up as the team’s top crunch-time scorer, giving LA a reliable third option. They have size, shooting, and playoff-tested toughness. If Leonard can stay on the floor, this team could wreck the bracket. If not, it may be another what-if for a franchise still chasing its first deep run.