If you’ve been betting on the NBA this season, you may have noticed some interesting trends over the first half of the year. From how a team performs against the spread (ATS) to its record following a loss, these trends reveal valuable insight into how certain clubs perform in different betting situations.
Now that we’ve passed the midway point of the season and have a big enough sample size, these trends are starting to carry some real weight. As we come up on the All-Star break and teams prepare to make their push for the playoffs, it gives us a chance to examine some of the key NBA betting trends from the first half of the season
Understanding these tendencies can be the difference between long-term profit and costly guessing, so this is an opportunity to refine your betting strategy before the final stretch. Here’s a breakdown of the key trends so far this season and what they mean for bettors.
Performance Against the Spread
The NBA standings are followed closely every day by fans and the media, but very rarely is the same attention given to a team’s record against the spread. It may not impact the playoff race, but a team’s ATS performance can often tell you whether or not they’re living up to expectations.
Best ATS Record: Phoenix Suns (34-19)
The Suns have surprised a lot of people around the NBA with their play this season, and currently sit second in the Pacific Division. Yet their record against the spread is even more impressive, as Phoenix owns the best ATS mark in the league.
Devin Booker remains the Suns’ offensive catalyst, but this year’s team is deeper and stronger defensively compared to recent seasons. Canadian Dillon Brooks has been a major contributor, including Player of the Week honours and a recent 40-point game. All of this has led to a major turnaround in Phoenix, with the team covering the spread a league-best 64% of the time.
Worst ATS Record: Sacramento Kings (21-33)
Not only are the Kings at the very bottom of the NBA standings with just 12 wins, they also own the NBA’s worst record against the spread. Despite being sizeable underdogs on a near-nightly basis, Sacramento continues to struggle with meeting the low expectations set by oddsmakers.
Sitting near the bottom of the league in points scored and points allowed, it’s clear that the Kings have issues on both ends of the floor. DeMar DeRozan, Domantas Sabonis and Russell Westbrook have been unable to right the ship, so we could see this team tank the back-half of the season to secure a top pick in the upcoming draft. Just another reason to continue fading Sacramento.
Over/Under Performance
With NBA offences playing faster and more efficient than ever before, more and more people are betting on NBA totals markets. Whether you prefer backing the over or under, it helps to know how teams have been performing relative to the posted totals for their games.
Best Over Record: Denver Nuggets (34-19)
With a combination of pace, scoring and efficiency, the Nuggets are the NBA’s most consistent team at hitting the over. It shouldn’t come as that big of a surprise since Denver is blessed with one of the most versatile offensive players of all time in Nikola Jokic. He’s basically a walking triple-double whenever he steps on the court.
Canadian Jamal Murray is also enjoying a career year for the Nuggets, putting up 26 ppg and shooting 43.2% from beyond the arc. The Nuggets lead the NBA in points per game (120.4) and sit just outside the bottom 10 for points allowed (116.3), creating the perfect game script for bettors taking the over.
Best Under Record: Boston Celtics (34-19)
Betting the under may seem like a boring proposition to some, but it’s been quite profitable this year if you’ve been focusing on Celtics games. Boston is an elite defensive unit, giving up the NBA’s second fewest points per game (108.4). Despite having one of the league’s highest scoring players in Jaylen Brown (29.4 ppg), Celtics games finish below the total more often than not.
The key reason for this is that Boston plays at the slowest pace in the league, using up the shot clock and reducing the number of possessions for both sides. This strategy has proven effective for the Celtics, who are tied for first atop the Atlantic Conference. It’s worked equally well for under bettors, with Boston’s games staying below the number at a 64% clip.
Record After a Loss
There are countless ups and downs over the course of the NBA season, so it’s important that teams are able to respond well in the face of adversity. Perhaps no metric tracks this better than a club’s record in games following a loss, measuring a group’s resilience and bounce-back ability.
Best Record After a Loss: Denver Nuggets (14-5)
The Nuggets are once again featured in one of our key betting trends, and for good reason; Denver has only lost 19 games this season, but they’ve come back strong nearly every time. This trend speaks to the club’s toughness and experience, proving that they can still answer the bell when challenged.
Even with Jokic missing a considerable amount of time this season, Denver’s strong ball movement and balanced production have helped them raise their level of play when needed. This is a great situation to be on the lookout for down the stretch, with the Nuggets being the NBA’s most dependable team to bet on in bounce-back scenarios.