It’s that time of year when the sun sets early and we get the urge to cozy up to a good movie in the evening. Whether that calls for a trip to the movie theatre to see something on the big screen, or simply streaming from the comfort of home, a lot of good titles are released this time of year.
In the Box Office Specials section of our sportsbook, movie buffs can test their prowess with movie betting opportunities. This is where you get to wager on how successful you think a movie will be. There are two measurements used: Total Gross for Opening Weekend, and ratings from a review aggregator website. Both options use totals with over/under picks.
This month, we’re doing short previews for Gladiator II and Moana 2, and an in-depth look at the highly-anticipated musical, Wicked. Along with each preview, we’ll provide the betting odds for each title as they appeared in the sportsbook at the time of publication.
Box Office Movie Betting: Gladiator II
The sequel to Gladiator—also directed by Ridley Scott —will be released on Friday, November 22 in Canada. This is the follow-up to the 2000 historical epic that featured Russell Crowe as Maximus, the revenge-driven former Roman General who elicited the rage of Emperor Marcus Aurelius’ son when he was chosen to be the new ruler. That movie won five Oscars in 2001, including Best Picture, Best Actor in a Leading Role, Best Actor in a Supporting Role and Best Director.
That set up a lot of pressure for the sequel. Russell Crowe declined to participate, opening the door for a new story arc that revolved around Lucius Verus, the son of Lucilla who makes an appearance in the first movie. Irish actor Paul Mescal plays Lucius. Another new addition to the cast includes Denzel Washington who plays a support role as the arms dealer and powerbroker, Macrinus. Connie Nielsen, Lucius’ mother, returns from the original cast to hash out Lucius’ story.
Gladiator II Betting
Rotten Tomatoes has become the top review aggregate site for movies and shows. Each title gets two ratings: a Tomatometer based on critics, and a Popcornmeter based on the site’s users. Bet on the latter being over or under 88%, keeping in mind that the original Gladiator has an impressive 87% Popcornmeter rating. This bet is settled one month after the November 22 release date.
Box Office Movie Betting: Moana 2
The sequel to Disney’s animated family-friendly ancient Polynesian movie, Moana (released in 2016) will hit theatres Wednesday, November 27. Moana 2 takes place three years after the events of the original and sets up the protagonist with a new adventure that will take her further than she’s ever been before. Summoned by her ancestors, the wayfinder must go on a trek to Oceania to break a curse placed on the island of Motufetu; doing so will unite her people on all of the different Polynesian islands.
Moana had positive critic reception in 2016, receiving 3 ½ stars by Christy Lemire on the Roger-Ebert site. The heroin’s rejection of the old princess trope in favour of delivering strong leadership for her tribe is a theme that delivers a memorable message for its audience.
Some characters from the original will join her on this new trek, including the boisterous and charming demigod Maui, who reluctantly helped her return a stolen magical stone in the original. He shows up in the Moana 2 trailer in the form of a shark and turns into a hawk as he lands on Moana’s boat. A new character is Moana’s 3.5-year-old sister, Simea. The new dynamic between Moana and her little sister leads to a newfound tie that urges Moana to return home quickly after her expedition.
Moana 2 Betting
The Popcornmeter for the original Moana is 89%. Can the sequel live up to the first? The Polynesian stories and myths in the original Moana helped it become a major success that will be tough to replicate. You can bet on Moana 2 getting a Popcornmeter rating that’s over (-150) or under (+110) 82%. The total is a bit low, which is why the over has a -150 premium.
Box Office Movie Betting: Wicked
Fans of the Broadway musical Wicked will be lining up at the ticket booths next Friday, November 22 for the debut weekend. This Universal production has been in the works since December 2022, and is finally set for release. This will be Part I of a two-part series based on the 1995 Gregory Maguire novel, Wicked: The Life and Times of the Wicked Witch of the West.
This is going to be a big one for movie buffs, so don’t miss out on this unique cinema experience that can be bolstered with some shrewd bets. The classic Broadway show and original Wizard of Oz movie from the ‘40s has helped build a big fanbase that will be eager to see how this segment of the story adapts to the big screen.
Wicked Plot
Wicked is a prequel to “The Wizard of Oz,” telling the story of what happened before Dorothy and her friends showed up in Oz. It revolves around the two witches: Glinda Upland, the Witch of the North, and Elphaba Thropp, the Wicked Witch of the West who delivers the famous line “I’ll get you my pretty, and your little dog too” in the Wizard of Oz movie.
Elphaba is a young woman of questionable origin plagued by green skin. Along with her sister, Elphaba enrolls at Shiz University in Oz, where she meets Glinda, her roommate at Crage Hall. Glinda’s obsession with popularity creates a foil for Elphaba, who must overcome her insecurities to meet her potential, all while staying true to herself. Despite their differences, they become friends.
A love triangle adds a wrinkle to the developing relationship between Elphaba and Glinda when Fiyero appears. He further highlights the differences between the two leading ladies, as Glinda is interested in him because of his status, while Elphaba offers a more sincere connection, serving as a passionate counterpart to the bored and reckless Fiyero. Elphaba’s influence helps develop the two-dimensional character.
The movie progresses to the point where Glinda and Elphaba are set to meet the Wizard of Oz. Head mistress of the university, Madame Morrible, helps prepare Elphaba for the meeting by developing her unique sorcery skills. When the two friends go meet the Wizard of Oz, they realize he’s not what they thought, and their friendship is challenged.
Wicked Cast
The original Broadway cast for Wicked had Kristin Chenoweth as Glinda and Idina Menzel as Elphaba. Director Jon M. Chu, who has directed music-infused movies before, cast English actress and singer Cynthia Erivo to play the part of Elphaba for the movie. Erivo had a lead role in the Broadway adaptation of The Color Purple and won several awards for that, including a Grammy (Musical Theater Album) for the soundtrack. After live theater, Erivo moved to film and was nominated for an Academy Award for Best Actress for her lead role in the biographical film, Harriet.
Glinda is played by Ariana Grande, who made a name for herself through various roles on the American TV channel, Nickelodeon. Following her time with Nickelodeon, she launched a music career with the studio album “Music from Victorious” and “My Everything,” winning two Grammy Awards in the process. Grande has been keen to play Glinda in Wicked, calling it her “dream role.”
Wicked Betting Markets
If you think Wicked is destined for success, bet on it in our sportsbook. You can bet on the Opening Weekend Box Office revenue going over (-115) or under (-115) $128 million—the same amount grossed by “The Batman” on its debut weekend. With the “Wicked” Broadway shows being performed for 20 years, there’s every reason to believe the film will have a far–reaching market and possibly surpass Opening Weekend expectations. Screen Rant has predicted between $100 and $125 million for domestic Opening Weekend, putting it behind Deadpool & Wolverine ($211 million) and Inside Out 2 ($155 million).
Another betting option is to try to predict if the “Popcornmeter” rating will be over (-120) or under (-120) 89%. If you think this is going to be a real crowd pleaser, try betting “Over.” Both the Opening Weekend and Popcornmeter bets are available in the Entertainment section of our sportsbook, under Box Office Specials.
We’ll check in again next month with a new suite of Box Office bets based on the December releases. On Christmas Day, Nosferatu is set to hit theaters, taking advantage of the festive winter season that the story is set in. This remake of the 1922 German silent film, Nosferatu (based on Bram Stoker’s Dracula) tells the story of a vampire’s obsession with a young woman. Stay tuned for more exciting releases to add to your must-watch list.
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