The race for NFL MVP isn’t a sprint; it’s a full-contact marathon that lasts all season. This year is no exception, and we’ve already seen the odds shift wildly from week to week. The MVP race tends to heat up during the back-half of the regular season, so you can expect some big-time performances down the stretch.
The vote is usually decided by a mix of stats and team success, but it also helps to have a good storyline that the media and fans can rally around. While the honour usually ends up going to a quarterback, there are also a few non-QBs making their case for this year’s award.
The 2025 NFL season began with the usual names atop the MVP odds board, including Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. Yet as the weeks rolled on, those names were replaced by players like Drake Maye, Jonathan Taylor and Matthew Stafford.
As we approach the final month of the regular season, now’s the perfect time to get a solid overview of this year’s NFL MVP betting market. Let’s jump right in and highlight some of the current favourites to win the award, as well as some breakout challengers and a few unexpected longshots.
The Front Runners
Matthew Stafford, Rams, QB
+105 to win NFL MVP
Currently the favourite to win the 2025 NFL MVP, Matthew Stafford is putting together one of his best campaigns in years. The veteran passer has been near-perfect for the Rams this season, having thrown for 3,073 yards with an NFL-best 32 touchdown passes and just 4 interceptions. Perhaps more importantly, Stafford has guided Los Angeles to a 9-3 mark and first place in the NFC West. While yesterday’s loss to the Panthers led to a dip in his current MVP odds, he remains the clear favourite to take home this year’s award.
Drake Maye, Patriots, QB
+130 to win NFL MVP
MVP or not, it looks like the Patriots have found their next franchise quarterback. Drake Maye has taken a huge leap forward in just his second season in New England and has the Patriots sitting pretty atop the AFC East. The sophomore quarterback leads the NFL with a 71% passing percentage, picking up 3,130 passing yards with 21 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Still just 23 years old, Maye’s athleticism and big arm have transformed New England’s offence. He’s already delivered several signature wins and primetime performances, making him one of the top contenders for NFL MVP.
The Main Challengers
Dak Prescott, Cowboys, QB
+1400 to win NFL MVP
The Cowboys may have had a slow start to the season, but Dak Prescott has rallied this team back into playoff contention, inserting himself into the MVP conversation in the process. He’s thrown for 3,261 yards and 25 touchdowns, while leading the NFL’s top-ranked passing offence. With Dallas now on a three-game winning streak, Dak has climbed his way into this year’s MVP race. If Prescott continues to play well and can guide the Cowboys back to the playoffs, he’ll have a shot at becoming the franchise’s first MVP since Emmitt Smith in 1993.
Josh Allen, Bills, QB
+2800 to win NFL MVP
The NFL’s reigning MVP is once again in the running for this award, proving how valuable he is to this Bills team on a weekly basis. Allen’s thrown for 2,832 yards and 19 touchdowns, but his dual-threat ability is what makes him truly special. With 11 rushing touchdowns on the year, he has the ability to take over a game with his arm or his legs. With a strong finish down the stretch, Allen could become the first back-to-back NFL MVP since Aaron Rodgers won the award in 2020 and 2021.
The Long Shots
Jonathan Taylor, Colts, RB
+7000 to win NFL MVP
It’s been a while since a non-quarterback has won NFL MVP, but Jonathan Taylor is making a strong case for this year’s award. The running back has been the driving force behind Indianapolis’ surprising turnaround this season, leading the Colts to an NFL-best 29.8 points per game. With 1,282 yards on the ground, Taylor is running away (no pun intended) with this year’s NFL rushing title and has more touchdowns (17) than any other player in the league. It would take an incredible season for a running back to win this award, and that’s exactly what Taylor is doing this year in Indy.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks, WR
+7000 to win NFL MVP
Still just 23 years old and playing with a new quarterback this season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a game-wrecker for the Seahawks this season. JSN leads the NFL with 1,336 receiving yards, and is also top-five in catches (82) and receiving touchdowns (7) through 12 games. With a real shot at breaking Calvin Johnson’s all-time record for receiving yards in a season, this 70-to-1 MVP long shot would deliver a massive payout if he were to win this year’s NFL MVP award.
Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers, QB
+15000 to win NFL MVP
If you’re looking for a true sleeper pick to claim the NFL MVP in 2025, Baker Mayfield is your best bet. The Buccaneers quarterback was a leading contender early in the season, but three straight losses (albeit to quality opponents) have caused his odds to skyrocket. His offensive numbers won’t overwhelm the voters (2,600 passing yards, 19 TDs, 5 INTs), but he’s already had 4 fourth-quarter comebacks, while also navigating a litany of injuries to his top playmakers. If Baker can lead Tampa Bay to another NFC South crown, you never know what can happen!