Quick wins or play the long game? It’s a strategy that the Toronto Maple Leafs have been battling internally for some time. David Alter gives his take.
The Toronto Maple Leafs didn’t have a first-round draft pick in 2021. After going all in for a deep playoff push, they pushed their chips into the middle of the table and dealt it away to the Columbus Blue Jackets in exchange for veteran forward Nick Foligno. We all know how that turned out now with Toronto getting upset in the first round of the playoffs by the Montreal Canadiens. However, it put an extra emphasis on the Leafs to really hit with their second-round selection.
That pick was Matthew Knies, a big power forward from the University of Minnesota with many tools that projected him as a future NHL player. Fast forward to the 2024-25 season, and Knies has become Toronto’s key power forward, capable of playing alongside any of the team’s top playmakers. The forward dazzled in Tampa as the current season draws to a close. He picked up a hat trick and moved to a career-best 29 goals as of this writing in a 4-3 win against the Tampa Bay Lighting on Apr. 9. Clearly, his confidence is at an all-time high, even trying a through-the-legs pass during the overtime session that nearly resulted in a goal.
For more upside, Knies is just 22 and yet he’s about to enter his third NHL playoffs. He’s already proven himself to be a performer in big games with three goals and four assists in 14 playoff games. Last season, Knies’ production dipped toward the end of the regular season. He also found himself on the fourth line after some struggles, but eventually found his way back up the lineup. This season there has been no dip.
Knies is Set For a Big Pay Rise
Knies has also helped Toronto when it comes to salary cap management. In the final year of his entry-level contract, the player only accounts for $925,000 in Toronto’s cap. That’s surely going to change this summer as the player is up for a new contract. As a Restricted free agent, Toronto has some level of control. However, he is going to be due a substantial raise. Given that he is likely to surpass the 30-goal mark and with the salary cap expected to increase, figures between $6-9 million per season have been suggested, depending on the contract length.
According to Puckpedia.com, the Leafs have about $27,485,231 in salary cap space next season with 16 players signed. Knies will eat some of that. The Leafs also have to figure out how much (if any of it) will go to new contracts for Mitch Marner and John Tavares who are both unrestricted free agents. While it’s expected that Tavares, who is having a resurgence as of late, will get a deal done with Toronto at some point, with Marner it’s far less certain and clarity on that for the Leafs would be helpful before getting a new deal done with someone like Knies.
The Leafs have traded a lot of draft picks recently as they continue their approach to win now. Other promising picks, such as Fraser Minten and Nikita Grebenkin, were traded before the 2024 NHL trade deadline to acquire pieces to aid Toronto’s bid to win. This has emphasized the importance for the Leafs to maximize their draft picks, and Knies is a prime example of this success. The Leafs have also been active in the college free agent market picking up a player like forward Luke Haymes. Undrafted late bloomers like Haymes can pick where they want to play and Toronto had the opportunity to sign him due to their lack of top-end prospects. But if the Leafs can hit like they can on Knies, the reward for winning now is far sweeter than the risk of selling the future, when the future hits like it has with Knies.
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